CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-03-23T01:25ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29715/-1
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME first seen to the north in SOHO LASCO C2 (appearing a few timestamps before the second northern front of 2024-03-23T01:48Z CME and earlier than the faint full halo to the SW). The CME is associated with the X1.1-class flare from Active Region 3614 centered ~N25E07 and with associated eruption seen as EUV wave in SDO AIA 193, and as a NE-SW oriented large area of dimming/post eruptive arcades centered ~around Active Region 3614. X-class flare was accompanied by/contributed to by concurrent flare from Active Region 3615 (S14E15). Combined arrival of this CME with CME: 2024-03-23T01:48Z was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-03-24T14:10Z. The arrival signature is characterized by sharp increase in B-total from 6nT to 26nT, reaching 33nT and by a jump in solar wind speed from about 550 km/s to 851 km/s, with a peak of 880 km/s and an increase in density and temperature seen at ~14:10Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-24T14:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-24T16:09Z (-2.22h, +1.97h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/03/23 01:16Z Plane of Sky 1: 05:00Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction Plane of Sky 2: 08:20Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction POS Difference: 3:20 POS Midpoint: 06:40Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:24 Numeric View/Impact Type: 2 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.2 Travel Time: ~7.2 * 5:24 = 38:53 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-03-24T16:09Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time: 5% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5 Forecast Creation Time: 2024/03/23 08:59ZLead Time: 19.82 hour(s)
Difference: -1.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-03-23T18:21Z
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